Overview

To prove the true ROI of Out-of-Home (OOH) advertising, a data-driven retail campaign set out to measure exact revenue and volume lift across two major metropolitan markets: London and Manchester. Rather than relying solely on high-level attribution, the strategy focused on isolating campaign performance from baseline organic demand to establish direct incrementality.

The campaign utilized advanced statistical modeling to account for market seasonality and historical sales patterns. By comparing live campaign performance against a predicted baseline, the analysis provided clear, validated proof of OOH’s direct impact on sales and unit volume.

Campaign Highlights

• Markets: London and Manchester, UK

• Primary environments: Metropolitan high-footfall OOH placements

• Measurement model: Causal Impact Analysis with 95%+ confidence validation

The Challenge

A Causal Impact Analysis was conducted to determine how much the OOH campaign directly affected the business's key metrics, sales uplift and units sold. By using historical data to carefully model the business's natural seasonality, the campaign aimed to identify the true incremental gain from OOH media placements across two major metropolitan markets: London and Manchester.

The Solution

OOH campaign performance was measured by comparing the observed real-world results during the campaign period against a statistically modelled baseline of predicted sales. To ensure statistical significance, all final results were visualized and validated with a 95% confidence level or above. The analysis identified the incremental sales and units sold during the campaign period.

The Results

Total Sales Analysis (Combined London & Manchester)

• +3% Sales Uplift: above predicted baseline during the campaign period 

• +£32,494 Incremental Sales: resulting from OOH campaign  

• +5,179 Units Sold: number of incremental units sold as a result of the OOH campaign, above modelled baseline